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More or Less

<p>Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.</p>

BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:40) Does the UK account for nine out of ten of the poorest regions in Northern Europe? It’s a classic story of devil meets detail where the true meaning is the geographical inequality we met along the way.(07:54) An article in The Economist has claimed that a single donkey charity in Devon received more in annual donations than all the major political parties combined. Is this true? And if so, should we be Led by Donkeys?(11:29) Last week 781 migrants crossed the channel in small boats in one day. Social media is keen to work out how much this might cost the UK economy. We put the numbers in context and ask Madeleine Sumption from the Migration Observatory about the fiscal impact of asylum seekers.(21:38) A claim has been buzzing round the internet that bees could hold the secret to long life, but our team is sceptical. We deliver the statistical exposé of Big Honey that the mainstream media’s been too afraid to cover.Guests: Liam Sides, Associate Director at Oxford Economics’ Cities and Regions team
Dr Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
Professor Dot Bennett, Professor of Cell Biology at City St. George's, University of London
Dr Ramsay Bowden, Consultant in Clinical Genetics at Cambridge University HospitalsPresenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Kateryna Pavlyuk
Producer: Nathan Gower
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Does the UK really have nine out of the ten poorest regions in Northern Europe?

US president Donald Trump has claimed in a speech to the UN that the US and Venezuela combined now have 60% of the world’s oil. 
100% of the team on More or Less were confused.What measurement was the president using to get to this figure? Barrels of oil produced a day? Reserves of oil in the ground? It’s hard to make any of these stats add up.To find out whether there was any truth in the claim, we spoke to energy expert Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.If you spot any numbers you think we should take a look at, email us at moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Researcher: Kateryna Pavlyuk
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Trump fact-check: Do the US and Venezuela have 60% of the world’s oil?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles.(07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the history.(13:51) Is the AI datacentre goldrush threatening to swamp our electricity grid? And what are the consequences for its carbon footprint? We delicately untangle the live wires of this hot potato and give the people what they want: nuanced #GridChat.(20:38) This is the way the album ends - not with a banger, but with a whimper. Music Substacker Mitchell Stirling has used data to test the decades theory that albums tend to end with a quiet track. Come for the explanation of the physics of vinyl, stay for whatever music we end up being able to use.Guests: 
Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times
Johnny Gowdy - Director at Regen
Mitchell Stirling - Substacker, data nerd, music nerd (Renaissance man)Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Has the UK’s productivity puzzle been solved?

Are fruit and vegetables less nutritious than they used to be? And is declining soil quality to blame?
Loyal listener Sarah got in touch to ask us to investigate an interesting quote from Dr Karan Rajan in a BBC news story.
“We know our soil is not as nutrient dense as it was decades ago,” he said. “So a carrot in the 1950s will be far more nutrient-rich than a 2026 carrot.”
Is this really true? wondered Sarah. We wondered the same, so we spoke to some experts on fruit and veg nutrition to find out.  CONTRIBUTORS
Robin  Marles, a former senior scientist in Canada’s  Food and Nutrition Directorate
Professor Steve McGrath, a research scientist at Rothamsted ResearchCREDITS
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Sue Maillot
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are carrots becoming less nutritious?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:33) Are crumbling teeth the number one reason children attend A&E? We drill down into the dental health of the nation’s kids.(08:20) The US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has claimed that a quarter of pharmaceuticals used in the UK come from Israel. We check the facts.(13:20) Is former Education Secretary Michael Gove responsible for increasing number of young people not in education, employment or training?(20:11) An AI researcher has caused a global firestorm by suggesting there’s more than a 10% chance AI kills all humans within the next decade. We explore the rigorous maths (or lack thereof) behind these kinds of predictions.Guests: 
Dr Chris Vernazza - head of the School of Dental Sciences at Newcastle University
Daisy Christodoulou - Director of Education at No More Marketing
Dr Alexandru Marcoci - Assistant Professor of Global Risk and Resilience at the University of CambridgePresenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Are bad teeth the number one reason kids go to A&E?

Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect. 
This is a naturally occurring phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures rise, transferring warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. This can drive up global temperatures but also play havoc with weather systems, with profound consequences.
And this year, scientists have watched with ever-widening eyes, as their projections for the peak of this year’ El Niño event have come in unprecedently high.
Indeed, one climate scientist has argued that it's not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years.
We wanted to find out more, so we went straight to the scientist himself.  Contributor:
Dr. Zeke Hausfather - research scientist with Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at StripeCredits:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Could this be the strongest El Niño in 1,000 Years?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why?(07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics.(14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain?(21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m worth of robbery? Prepare for five minutes of public service journalism at its finest.Guests: 
Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government
Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data
Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Why are so many ex-prisoners being sent back to prison?

Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before.
 
But how can he be so confident? Matt came into the studio armed with a deck of cards and some very big calculations to back up his big assertion, and introduced us to the mind-splitting mathematical world of factorials and combinatorics.
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound engineer: James Beard
Programme co-ordinator: Brenda Brown        
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is every card shuffle unique?

What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early? No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years.To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts. From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here. Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Tom Colls, Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Sue Maillot

Bonus podcast: Norman Numbers

How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave?Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year.“This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote.We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness.To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehner - assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh.If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Krista Beighton
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Do Germans really take 19.5 days of sick leave per year?

Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel.Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question.“How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered.To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have a interesting statistical question like Nigel, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much of the world isn’t owned by anyone?

As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid. The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department. This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made by DOGE has resulted in 'zero' deaths. But who is right, and what are the problems with these sorts of estimates? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie to find out more. If you see numbers that you want us to look into contact moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production  Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

14 million deaths or zero deaths? The impact of the USAID cuts

Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire. This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world?How much of all the money does Elon Musk have?We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the Financial Times.If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have an interesting statistical question like Stephen, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much of all the money in the world does Elon Musk have?

If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick?When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m.As you may or may not have imagined, this finding provoked outrage on Twitter, with people saying the UK appeared incredibly risk averse. “This is what’s wrong with Britain,” wrote celebrity polling analyst and More or Less interviewee Nate Silver.But is the result surprising, when you know a bit more about how people make decisions like this? BBC economics editor Faisal Islam explains why he thinks not.
 
Image: Illustration of paper notes with a sterling pound symbol falling. Credit: Jamie Lawton/Getty ImagesPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Siobhan Reed
Sound engineer: Donald MacDonald
Editor: Richard Vadon

Would you take £50,000 or a 50/50 chance of £1m?

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs? What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat?When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze? And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Charlotte McDonald
Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

The mistake in Trump’s tariff formula

The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’.But what does the data tell us?Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City Policing, has put together statistics that allow you to start to compare crime rates between cities around the world.
 
That evidence shows London in a different light, in terms of murder and other violent crimes.If you see any stats you think need looking into, contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk 
 
Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Andrew Garratt

Is crime in London ‘through the roof’?

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? 
 
We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. 
 
If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk
 
CONTRIBUTORS:
 
Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC
David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University
Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University
 
CREDITS:
 
Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?

Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports.The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark. But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend?We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain. If you see any stats that look too good to be true and want us to check them out, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk. Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Siobhan Reed
Sound Mix: James Beard.

Does playing tennis make you live 9.7 years longer?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this? We interview someone from the IFS to explain all this.(06:32) A headline in the Independent suggests that Russian soldiers survive an average of 20 minutes when they get to the front line, citing a historian, citing Russian bloggers. Is the number a good one? We take a peek into the murky information ecosystem that surrounds the war in Ukraine.(15:00)  A loyal listener has resent a burning question that - mortifyingly - he first asked us nearly three years ago: why is air travel cheaper than rail travel? We push our guilt deep, deep down then make it worse by challenging the premise of the question. (21:18)  Is every shuffle of a deck of cards an unprecedented event in the history of the universe? It’s a bold claim, but maths YouTuber and comedian Matt Parker has done his homework. We invite him into the studio to make his case - and show off his shuffling skills.More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: 
Luke Sibieta - Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Andrey Vladov - BBC Monitoring
Mark Galeotti - author of Forged in War - A Military History of Russia from its Beginnings to Today
Simon Calder - Travel Correspondent at the Daily Telegraph 
Matt Parker - Mathematician, comedian and YouTuber (Stand-up Maths)Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Josh McMinn
Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Siobhan Reed
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Does the average teacher really earn £54,000?

The Moon is one of the most captivating features of our night's sky, and apparently, one of the most suspicious....
For thousands of years, people have blamed the full moon for strange behavior. From ancient myths and the origins of the word lunacy to modern police folklore, the idea that a bright moon can influence human actions is one that many believe. 
But what does the data tell us? We spoke to Professor Eric Chudler, who has looked at crime rates and lunar cycles to discover whether the moon truly is the ultimate crime puppeteer. 
If you spot any suspicious numbers in the news or life and want us to investigate, please email in to: moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Mix: James Beard
Production coordinator: Siobhan Reed

Does a full moon make crime rates go up?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves.(10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’.(15:40) We turn to homophones in an attempt to continue a running joke. This week, we follow six items about Wales with an item about whales - are our cetacean friends the carbon sinks of our dreams? Will we ever write a stranger paragraph?(22:10) Cult director and maths fanboy Werner Herzog has been waxing lyrical about the intruiging mysteries of prime numbers. Tim cracks out a surprisingly decent impression and we learn about one of the most inscrutable problems in mathematics - what’s not to like?More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: 
Paul Swinney - Chief Economist at The Data City
Liam Sides - Associate Director at Oxford Economics
Dimple Rana - Heat Resilience Leader at Arup
Sue Grimmond - Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading
Dr Olaf Meynecke - Marine Ecologist, Griffith University
James Grime - Mathematician and star of YouTube channel NumberphileSpecial Guest Appearance:
The Voice of Werner HerzogPresenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown       
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Examining the numbers behind Andy Burnham’s ‘Manchester Miracle’

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).(14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.)(19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right?More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: 
Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford
Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’
Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of BristolReturning Special Guest appearance:Elis James: comedian and well-connected WelshmanPresenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown       
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more?

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: 'The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. 
 
The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. 
 
From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here? We talk to Dr Krstina Newport,  chief medical officer for the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Care Medicine to find out more.If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound engineer: Duncan Hannant
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the US worse than North Korea for malnutrition deaths?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet?(06:59)  Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot. (13:56)   Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what a Labour MP thinks after a recent PMQs saw no Conservative backbenchers ask a question. Are they really afraid to ask Keir Starmer a question? Or is it just probability? (19:20) In a series full of Welsh twists, another Welsh twist; have we been guilty of drastically underestimating the area of Wales by failing to account for its majestic mountains and plunging valleys? Topography is top of mind for our top team.More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: Gary Ford - policy advisor at the British Free Range Egg Producers Association
Dr Laura Graham - computational and spatial ecologist at the University of Birmingham
Dr  Jen Visser Rogers - statistician and chief scientific officer at Coronado Research. Special guest appearance: Elis JamesPresenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Does Europe suffer more heat deaths than the US?

The financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin on the numbers behind the 1929 crash.The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today.  Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom?Andrew's new book is '1929: Inside the Crash'.Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Producer:  Nathan Gower
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown       
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Andrew Ross Sorkin: What can the Great Crash of 1929 tell us about today?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:32) The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim.(08:40) Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme. Those nerds are Substacker Sam Freedman and Maxwell Marlow from the Adam Smith Institute, and they were betting on how the government’s introduction of VAT on school fees would affect pupil numbers. The results are in…(16:10) We revisit the topic of Welsh literacy after a raft of questions from loyal listeners. Could dual-language teaching explain Wales’ poor reading scores?(21:53) A Maths A-Level exam was so hard it inspired 30,000 people to sign a petition. But what made it so difficult, and will it make a difference to pupils’ grades?More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: Maxwell Marlow - Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute
Sam Freedman - Author of ‘Comment is Freed’ Substack
John Jerrim - Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College, London
Sebastian Bicen - maths YouTuber and former school maths teacherPresenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown       
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Education, Education, Education (and Immigration)

In certain corners of the internet some suspicious numbers are cropping up again and again. People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt to the ground or attacked in an assortment of countries, including France, the US and Canada. So, what is going on? Is there a spate of anti-Christian crime sweeping the globe? We look into what the data actually tells us. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound engineer: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Factchecking claims that 400 churches were burned to the ground in France

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:42) The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on migration and housing tells us.(06:58) Does one in five Welsh pupils leave school functionally illiterate? We take a dive into the world of Welsh education and find the numbers tell a different story - but not an encouraging one.(14:44) Accusations are flying about who’s responsible for the UK’s high borrowing costs. Does Liz Truss still cast a shadow over the bond market? Is Labour infighting to blame? Or are we missing the economic wood for the political trees? Duncan Weldon has the answers.(23:37) And an answer to a question that literally only one person was asking: how many football pitches would fit inside Wales?More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests:
Ben Brindle - researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
James Riding - Living Markets and Sustainability Editor at Inside Housing
Kathy Rastle - Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the University of London
Duncan Weldon - Economist and author of Blood and Treasure
Rob Eastaway - mathematician and author of Maths on the Back of an EnvelopePresenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Debunking the claim that migrants will get half of new homes

On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency. Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of infections in this current outbreak, in part because this particular species of Ebola is a rare one. Headlines recently stated that modelling shows that the number of infections could be almost 1,000 more than recorded. We speak to Dr Ruth McCabe, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling behind those estimates.  Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound Mix: James Beard
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Editor: Richard Vadon

The known unknowns of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean? (00:32)A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask where the money’s gone. (10:26)Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reduced VAT on theme parks, aquariums and other summer fun. But will these savings get passed on to the consumer? (21:07)And Tim gives a much-anticipated update on his recent marathon. (09:10)Contributors:
Stuart McDonald - actuary at LCP Health Analytics
John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter for the Financial Times
Kate Lamble - journalist and presenter of ‘Derailed: The story of HS2’
Dan Neidle - founder of Tax Policy AssociatesCredits:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter / Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Tom Colls, Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Does a fall in the UK's healthy life expectancy mean what you think it means?

What does it mean if you say that something is an epidemic? In the case of a virus, it usually means that it is spreading rapidly and that more and more people are getting infected. When a disease is not on the rise but is there in a population at a reasonably steady level, we tend to say that the disease is endemic. But what if the thing you are talking about is not a virus, but a feeling? In 2023, the US surgeon general launched a report called Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation, warning of the health harms of being lonely and socially isolated. The idea that there is an epidemic of loneliness did not start there - the term was already in use in the US in the 2010s. And it is a phrase that is still going strong, popping up in news stories on a regular basis. After that warning from the US surgeon general, the World Health Organization launched the Commission on Social Connection, with their director general warning that “more and more people are finding themselves isolated and lonely”But is it true that loneliness rates are increasing? Is it right to say we’re in the midst of an epidemic of loneliness? We speak to Prof Melody Ding, an epidemiologist and population behavioural scientist at the University of Sydney.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukThis programme has been edited to correct a minor technical production error on 27/05/2026Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Tom Colls
Sound engineer: Dave O’Neill: 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the ‘loneliness epidemic’ real?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. On the programme:Last week, Annunziata Rees-Mogg took to X to post a claim about the proportion of sex offences in Dorset that are committed by asylum seekers, writing that “asylum seekers make up 0.8% of Dorset’s population and 44% of alleged sex offenses. So unbelievable I had to check.” We checked too, and the number isn’t right. In the last series of More or Less we suggested that nuclear power plant Hinkley C was spending so much on protecting the fish population that it would cost something like £250,000 per fish saved. We’ve had to take a look at that one too. Last year, we looked at a report by the Bible Society based on polling from YouGov. The Quiet Revival suggested that churchgoing was on the rise in the UK, with young men leading the trend. YouGov now have an update on that survey.How many caterpillars does a blue tit chick eat before it leaves the nest? In a recent nature documentary, Sir David Attenborough said the right number was 20,000. We’re not so sure. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the more or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukCONTRIBUTORS:Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University
Professor David Voas, Emeritus Professor of Social Science in the UCL Social Research Institute
Annette Jäckle, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of Essex and a Deputy Director of the UK Household Longitudinal Study
Dr Malcolm Burgess, Principal Conservation Scientist at the RSPBCREDITSPresenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill 
Producer: Nathan Gower and Josh McGinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are refugees more likely to commit crime?

It is said that AI could soon be coming for the jobs of artists, lawyers, and software engineers. But it might now also be threatening a role at the height of academia – are pure mathematicians safe?
 
Last month, a Stanford mathematician woke up to an email, claiming to have the solution to a problem he had been working on for seven years - a 60-year-old conundrum known as Erdos Problem 1196. 
 
The answer had been generated in just 80 minutes - by ChatGPT.
 
Since the end of last year, AI has been providing solutions to a number of novel maths problems, but Problem 1196 is the first to raise eyebrows within the mathematical community. 
 
In this episode, we talk to the mathematicians who have worked on Problem 1196 and find out what the rise of AI could mean for the future of their field. 
 
Our contributors include Katie Steckles, Mathematician and communicator, Jared Duker Lichtman, Szegő assistant professor of mathematics at Stanford University and Liam Price, amateur mathematician.
 
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Josh McMinn
Sound engineer: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Erdos Problem 1196: Can AI now solve maths that no human can?

According to the World Health organisation, smoking kills some 7 million people every year. It is one of the world’s leading causes of preventable death.
 
Because smoking causes lung cancer and other awful health conditions, many smokers switch to vaping - using nicotine-based e-cigarettes.But the World Health organisation is also concerned about vaping. Last year they said 100 million people around the world are now using e-cigarettes, including millions of children, and warned that they were fuelling a new wave of nicotine addiction.But how do the health risks of these two means of getting nicotine into your bloodstream compare?According to a recent headline in the Daily Mail, they’re basically the same. Here’s the headline:“Vaping is linked to lung and mouth cancer in major study, as experts warn: 'It is NOT safer than smoking’”But is vaping really just as bad for you as smoking?CONTRIBUTOR:Professor Lion Shahab, Co-Director of the UCL Tobacco and Alcohol Research GroupCREDITS:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Reporter/producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O’Neil
Editor: Richard Vadon

Why it’s wrong to say vaping is as bad for you as smoking

If you spend much time on social media, and we don’t necessarily recommend it, then you’ve probably come across a strange fascination with water consumption. Mainly, this is people telling you that using AI is terrible for the planet because of how much water it uses. We’ve already made a couple of programmes about the numbers in those arguments and, long story short, they probably aren’t saying what you think they’re saying. But on platforms like X, BlueSky, and TikTok, an opportunity to keep an argument going is rarely missed. And one of the numbers that’s been enlisted in that glorious cause concerns the water that’s used for a seemingly unrelated past-time - eating beef. Here’s an example from a user on X:“A kilogram of beef requires over 15,000 litres of water to produce,” they wrote. “A vegan who uses ChatGPT every day is living a more sustainable lifestyle than someone who regularly eats beef while boycotting AI.”Ignoring the AI part, is that true? Does it actually take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef? It turns out that the number isn’t wrong, but it probably isn’t saying what you think it’s saying.If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukCONTRIBUTORS:
Mesfin Mekonnen, Assistant Professor at the University of Alabama
Mark Mulligan, Professor of Physical and Environmental Geography at King's College London
Tim Hess, Professor of Water and Food Systems at Cranfield University
 
CREDITS:
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Emma Harth
Editor: Richard Vadon

Does it take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef?

Vaccine policy in the US is something of an ideological battleground.
Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr is a vaccine sceptic, and since taking office he has attempted to remake US vaccine policy.
 
In March a judge blocked his proposal to cut the number of jabs that are recommended for kids.At the same time, last year saw the worst measles outbreak in the US in decades. There were more than 2000 cases last year, and three people died. There have been more than 1500 cases so far in 2026.There’s a lot going on, so it’s possible the public’s views on vaccination are shifting. A new poll published by online news site Politico added a big claim into the mix. According to the headline “more Americans doubt vaccine safety than trust it”.But is that what the survey actually found? Dr David Higgins, a paediatrician and public health assistant professor who writes a Substack called Community Immunity, explains why he believes the headline is misleading.If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Charlotte McDonald
Sound engineer: Neil Churchill
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Editor: Richard Vadon

Have RFK and MAHA really changed American views on vaccines?

US president Donald Trump is no fan of wind turbines, or windmills as he calls them.Not only does he think they ruin the view from a golf course he owns in Scotland, but they are also deadly to birds.“If you love birds, you’d never want to walk under a windmill,” he said in 2019.  “It’s a very sad, sad sight. It’s like a cemetery. We put a little statue for the poor birds.”Earlier this year he posted on Truth Social saying that wind turbines were killing “millions” of birds.But is that true? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data and senior researcher at the University of Oxford, who has dug into the numbers on bird mortality and wind turbines.Credits:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Sue Maillot
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is Trump right that wind turbines are killing millions of birds?

Sometimes it is obvious to everyone when an idea is harmful, or a piece of advice is damaging. But not always. Occasionally bad ideas and terrible advice end up being accepted in society and supported by people in authority.In such circumstances, one of the most powerful tools for changing people's minds is evidence – scientific studies that show beyond doubt that the bad idea is, indeed, a bad idea.That's the subject of a new book by Helen Pearson, titled Beyond Belief: How Evidence Shows What Really Works.An editor at the scientific journal Nature in her day job, the book chronicles those determined individuals who shake up the status quo by gathering just the right kind of evidence.One story in that book stood out to us on More or Less as it shows just what happens when you don't have the evidence you need to challenge a dangerous way of doing things.It's the story of a piece of advice from childcare expert Dr Benjamin Spock.In a 1958 revision of his bestselling parenting guide Baby and Childcare he made a small change to his advice on sleeping position – advising parents to put their babies to sleep on their front.It eventually became clear that this sleeping position was associated with a significant increase in the risk of sudden infant death, or cot death.CREDITS:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

Dr Spock’s dangerous advice on baby sleep

When you’re listening to the news, you will often hear words that are meant to communicate the probability of something happening.
 
A terrorist attack is “a realistic possibility”, the spread of a certain strain of virus is “highly likely", the relegation of your favourite football team is “possible”.But when you hear these terms, do you really know what kind of probabilities they’re trying to convey? Do you know how likely “likely” is? Or what probability “probable” is meant to get across?In some cases, it seems you probably don't.Professor Adam Kucharski, author of Proof, the Uncertain Science of Certainty, designed a quiz to work out the actual probabilities of the language we use to convey risks.The data he got back shows how sometimes these words mean very different things to different people.If you want to try the quiz for yourself, head over to https://probability.kucharski.io/Email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk 
CREDITS:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

How likely is ‘likely’?

As Artificial Intelligence continues to expand rapidly, some people have raised concerns about its potential environmental impact - in particular its use of water, which is used to cool both data centres and the power generators that supply them with electricity.One recent book on AI contained the alarming prediction that AI could consume between 4 and 6 trillion litres a year by 2027. Could this eye-popping figure be right? If not, what is the correct figure, and is it a big number?The devil, as ever, is in the detail, and with the help of expert Alex de Vries-Gao, the More or Loss team has taken a deep dive to get to the truth about AI and water consumption.If you’ve seen a number in the news and you think More or Less should take a look, email the team on moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer / Reporter: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Dave O’Neil
Editor: Richard Vadon

How much water does AI consume?

Paul Ehrlich’s bestselling book The Population Bomb opens with an apocalyptic paragraph. “The battle to feed all of humanity is over,” it states. “In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.”Professor Ehrlich, who died last week, made a simple argument. The global population was outrunning our capacity to produce enough food to feed everyone. Famine, disease and nuclear Armageddon would follow if the population was not controlled.The book made him a celebrity, and he regularly spoke in public, warning of the imminent threat to humanity. Sometimes his warnings were quite vague in terms of the timescale, but other times not - he was reported as saying in 1968 that if current trends continued, by the year 2000, the UK would be a “small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people". 
"If I were a gambler," he was quoted as saying, "I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000".But the UK did not collapse, the global death rate did not increase, and we have more food per person now than when he wrote the book. So, what went wrong with Paul Ehrlich's predictions of a population apocalypse?If you’ve seen a number or claim that you think More or Less should look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk
 
CONTRIBUTORSVincent Geloso, Assistant Professor of economics at George Mason UniversityDarrell Bricker, global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs and co-author of Empty Planet, the Shock of Global Population DeclinePeter Alexander, Professor of Global Food Systems at the University of EdinburghCREDITS:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O’Neil
Editor: Richard Vadon

Paul Ehrlich: The man who bet England wouldn’t exist by the year 2000

In most sports, men compete against men and women compete against women. That is generally considered fair, because men are faster, more powerful and have greater endurance.But there is an ongoing controversy about transgender women - people who were born male and now identify as women. Is it fair for them to compete in the women’s sport category or do they have an advantage?A study in the British Journal of Sports Medicine recently added to the debate with an analysis that found the strength and fitness of transgender women is “comparable” with that of women.More or Less looks into the research to explain what it does, and does not, say.Contributors:Professor Alun Williams, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityCredits:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Reporter: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Transgender women in sport: Does ‘comparable’ mean ‘equal’?

On Saturday 28th February, the US and Israel launched a military attack on Iran, targeting the country's missile infrastructure, military sites and leadership.In response, Iran launched a wave of strikes across the region, including on Israel and the Gulf states.Iran has a stockpile of ballistic missiles, which it’s firing at neighbouring countries. These countries in turn are using interceptor missiles to try and shoot them down.But is it clear who will run out of missiles first?Contributor:Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson CenterCredits:Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Tom Brignell
Editor: Richard Vadon

US-Israel war with Iran: Do the gulf states have enough interceptor missiles?

Have a million new species just been discovered?That’s the claim made by Dr Oliver Vince, co-founder of a company called Basecamp Research, who are collecting genetic data to train AI systems. The hope is that they’ll be able to use this to discover new medicines.But is this number a good one? Rob Finn, from the European Bioinformatics Institute, explains what is being counted and how you go about counting them.Credits:
Presenter and producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O’Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Has a company really discovered a million new species?

AI can make mistakes – and AI chatbots like ChatGPT warn you about that whenever you ask them anything.These mistakes sometimes involve making up entirely fictitious, factually false statements known as “hallucinations”.Whether these hallucinations matter depends on what you’re using AI for, and whether they are spotted and corrected.The team on More or Less were slightly surprised to read a headline in Fortune magazine, claiming that a top academic AI conference accepted research papers which contained 100 AI-hallucinated citations.You might think that the top AI researchers in the world would be careful about using AI to write their research papers.Alex Cui, CTO and co-founder of GPTZero – whose company discovered the hallucinations – explains what’s going on.CREDITS:
Presenter and producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: James Beard
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Editor: Richard Vadon

Did AI researchers let AI hallucinations into scientific papers?

Modern sport can seem awash with money, but it’s been claimed that the richest sportsperson of all is an ancient Roman Charioteer from the second century AD called Gaius Appuleius Diocles, with career winnings that stood at 35 million sesterces. One calculation has translated that into an astonishing $15 billion dollars today, and it’s a figure that’s stuck. But should we believe it?
 
Duncan Weldon talks to ancient historian Professor Mary Beard from the University of Cambridge to learn more about the big business of chariot racing, and how we should think about money and wealth in the economies of the past.
 
Presenter: Duncan Weldon
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown   
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Is an ancient charioteer the best paid sportsperson of all time?

Chelsea striker Liam Delap has recently stunned fans on Instagram by apparently doing incredibly complicated calculations in his head, finding what’s known as the cube root of some very large numbers.But is he really a human calculator? Or is there something else going on? Tim Harford speaks to Rob Eastaway, mathematician and author of ‘Maths on the Back of an Envelope’ to learn about the trick you can use to pull this off - and while he’s here we also ask him about the trend of more goals being scored in the Premier League.Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown     
Sound Engineer: James Beard
Credit: Video of Liam Delap from Chelsea’s Instagram account, chelseafc

Is this Premier League striker a secret maths genius?

Could European Nato members use their large holdings of US shares and bonds to put pressure on America?  It’s a question that some in Europe found themselves asking as the geopolitical crisis over Greenland escalated and leaders desperately tried to think of ways to dissuade Donald Trump. 
 
It is true that trillions of dollars of American financial assets are held in Europe. But the devil, as ever, is in the detail. 
 
Tim Harford talks to Toby Nangle, a journalist with the Financial Times, to drill down into the numbers.Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown        
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Could Europe use its financial muscle to strong-arm the US?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: Is it true that someone needs to earn £71,000 before they receive more money than a family on benefits?Did Canadian prime minister Mark Carney get the GDP of Canada and the Nordic countries wrong?Are 1990s pop icons Right Said Fred right about what they said about church attacks? Is a sauna really ten times as hot as Wales in the winter?And Tim hits the science lab treadmill to find out if he can run a four-hour marathon.If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukContributors: 
Gareth Morgan, benefits expert and author of the Benefits in the Future blog
Joe Shalam, policy director of the Centre for Social Justice
Professor Kelly Morrison, head of physics at Loughborough University
Dr Danny Muniz, a senior lecturer in Exercise Physiology at the University of HertfordshireCredits: 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporters: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls 
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Gareth Jones and James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Can you get £71,000 on benefits?

The vast island of Greenland has found itself at the centre of a geopolitical crisis. But a little bit of geography can help us see the situation in a new light.YouTuber and map expert Jay Foreman explains how Mercator maps - the maps that the vast majority of us use to understand the world - contain necessary but massive distortions and hugely exaggerate the size of the Arctic island. So, why is making a flat map of a round globe so difficult? Why did we end up with a problematic map in the first place? And are there any alternatives?Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown     
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Is Greenland as big as Africa?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: How far away is Greenland from the United States? We check a number From Our Own Correspondent. Does converting our entire energy system to be carbon neutral come with a £7.6 trillion price tag? Is the inevitable rise of house prices in the UK not so inevitable after all? Can the great mathematicians of history answer the question of the hour: how to play The Traitors?If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukContributors:
Jay Foreman, one half of YouTube duo the Map Men 
Mike Thompson, chief economist of the National Energy System Operator 
David Turver, author of The Cost of Net Zero, a report from the Institute of Economic Affairs
Neal Hudson, housing market analyst and founder housing research website BuiltPlace
Dr Kat Phillips, mathematician and Innovation research associate at the University of Warwick, Traitors aficionadoCredits: 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Tom Colls 
Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

How close is Greenland to the United States?

In Autumn 2025 a paper in South Korea was published that excited many a vaccine sceptic online. The paper claimed that receiving a vaccination against Covid19 was linked to a 27% increase in cancer risk. However, when you dig into the data there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the cancer. We spoke to Professor Justin Fendos to explain why we cannot take this type of statistical analysis at face value. Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: James Beard

No, a study has not shown that the covid jab causes cancer

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: A headline in the Mail says more than 100 private schools have closed since Labour came to power and ended the VAT exemption for private schools. Is that number right? Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one-week delay in imposing lockdown led to 23,000 deaths?Do 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? That’s what government spokesperson Baroness Ruth Anderson said in the House of Lords, but is it correct?  Is there really a “quiet revival” of Christian worship? Two YouGov polls found churchgoing had gone up by 50% between 2018 and 2024 in England and Wales. New polling data suggests otherwise. If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukContributors: 
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge
Professor Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social ResearchCredits: 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporters: Tom Colls and Nathan Gower
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Lizzy McNeill
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?

When people think of oil rich nations their mind generally goes to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the US. But according to international statistics, the country with the largest oil reserves is Venezuela, with 300 billion barrels worth. At their peak they produced over 3.5 million barrels of the stuff per day. However, due to lack of investment, sanctions and mismanagement that peak is long gone. Following their military intervention, the US administration claims they can get Venezuela's oil production up and running at full capacity within 18 months.But can they, and why is it that estimates for other countries oil reserves have fluctuated but Venezuela’s has stayed at 300 billion barrels for over two decades? Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill

Does Venezuela really have the biggest oil reserves in the world?

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the final episode, we’re looking at the numbers behind some of the UK’s most potent political debates:Has 98% of the UK’s population growth come from immigration?Do we spend more on benefits in the UK than in other high-income countries?Is the gap between rich and poor growing?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.ukContributors:Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University
Lukas Lehner, Assistant Professor at the University of Edinburgh
Arun Advani, Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation and a Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick.
Alex Scholes, Research Director at NatCenCredits:Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Immigration, Benefits and Inequality

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the fourth episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:Are one in four pensioners millionaires?Is England’s education system performing better than Finland’s? And how does it compare to Scotland, Wales and Northern IrelandAre our prisons going to run out of space?Is the weather getting weirder?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.ukContributors:
Heidi Karjalainen, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies
Harry Fletcher-Wood, Director of Training at StepLab
John Jerrim, Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College London
Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government
Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College LondonCredits:
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Older People, Education, Prisons and the Weather

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the third episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:Are there really 700,000 empty homes that could be used to solve the housing crisis?Does the NHS pay less for drugs than health services in other countries?Is violent crime going up or down?Is the UK in the midst of a fertility crisis?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.ukContributors:Dr Huseyin Naci, Associate Professor and Director the Pharmaceutical Policy Lab at the London School of Economics
Professor Jennifer Dowd, deputy director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of OxfordCredits:Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower
Producers: Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Sex, Drugs and Empty Homes

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. 
 
In the second episode, we’re asking some interesting questions about health and the NHS: Has life expectancy in the UK started to go up again at last?What statistics tell you about the health of the NHS?After years of promises, are there actually any more GPs?What’s happening to cancer rates in the UK?What’s gone wrong with productivity in the health service?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.ukContributors:Stuart McDonald, Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP)
Jon Shelton, Head of Cancer Intelligence at Cancer Research UK
Ben Zaranko, Associate Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies
 
Credits:
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Health

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. 
 
In the first episode, we’re starting the week by asking some interesting questions about the economy: 
 
Is the cost-of-living crisis over? 
 
The economy is expected to have grown by 1.5% in 2025. Is that a big number? 
 
When taxes are at record highs, why does it feel as if everything is such hard work for public services?
 
Do the majority of people in Scotland pay less tax than they would in the rest of the UK?
 
Does the UK have a more progressive tax system than Scandinavian countries? 
 
Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk
 
Contributors: 
 
Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation
Helen Miller, Director of Institute for Fiscal Studies
Mairi Spowage, Professor and Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde
John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times
 
Credits:
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Quiz contestant: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

The Economy

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course.Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

Numbers of the year 2026

From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We explore the woes of a big infrastructure projects. Plus, just how can you make sure your New Year’s Resolutions are successful? We’ve got statistics to help. Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeil
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld 
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele 
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Numbers of the Year 2025

We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump’s import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across the globe. We also look upwards to a particularly speedy comet - 3i Atlas.Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

Numbers of the year 2025

The surprising things we learn when we count everyone - a tour of the UK census through time. We also figure out just how many parking officers there are versus soldiers in the British army. Who really does all the housework?  Plus - 20 years of ‘Freakonomics’ with Stephen Dubner. And finally - were there really three wise men who visited baby Jesus? And were they kings as the Christmas hymn would lead us to believe?Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeil
Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower and Katie Solleveld 
Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele 
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Were there really Three Wise Men?

A loyal listener wrote in to question this claim made by neuroscientist Dr Daniel Levitin: "Here in the US valium in a pharmacy might be $3 that same pill in a hospital setting might be $750."Our listener was shocked at how one pill can cost 250 x more in a hospital setting than in a pharmacy. But can it? Sort of. We turned to Elisabeth Rosenthal to take us on a dive into the frankly shocking world of US Health costs. Presenter: Tim Harford 
Producer: Lizzy McNeill 
Series Producer: Tom Colls 
Editor: Richard Vadon 
Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele 
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

The shocking world of US health costs

The NHS is warning of an unprecedented flu season - we check what the numbers say.Is there really a mass exodus of Brits leaving the UK due to Labour tax policies? We look at the latest emigration figures.We take a look at the prison service’s curious habit of letting prisoners out early – or keeping them in for too long - is there a trend?Plus - why the US economy can’t grow at 25 percent a year.Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Katie Solleveld, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls.
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Do we really have ‘superflu’?

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we’re continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us.  
 
Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept on with business as usual, then by the end of the century global temperatures would increase by almost five degrees centigrade.  
 
This projection was based on something called RCP 8.5, a statistical scenario used by scientists to model the future of the climate.  
 
You can still find scientific papers published in 2025 that make the same claim. However, there’s a good case that RCP 8.5 should never have been used as the business-as-usual scenario. And in hindsight it doesn’t look like an accurate vision of the future at all.  
 
So what’s going on? 
 
Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the climate research lead at Stripe, explains the argument.  
 
Presenter: Tim Harford 
Series producer: Tom Colls 
Sound mix: Donald MacDonald 
Editor: Richard Vadon

RCP 8.5: Why did the climate change model get it wrong?

Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates. 
 
The US is no exception.
 
To tackle this issue the US government announced that it would provide subsidies for Americans seeking IVF treatment. The announcement was accompanied by one suspect sounding stat from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 
 
"Today the average teenager in this country has 50% of the sperm count, 50% of the testosterone as a 65-year-old man," he said. 
 
We speak to Professor Allan Pacey, Professor of Andrology at the University of Manchester, and Adith Arun, a researcher at Yale University to find out whether this statement is accurate. 
 
Producer/Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Mix: James Beard

Is RFK right about US sperm counts?

In the later part of the 20th century, a pioneering group of economists started shaking up their academic field.These “behavioural economists” used findings from experimental psychology and everyday life to challenge the prevailing view that human beings were rational decision makers – acting in predictable ways to maximize their wealth.One of those pioneers was Richard Thaler, who noted down some of these “anomalies” in a column in the 1980s, which was turned into a book - The Winner’s Curse - first published in 1992. His work also won him the Nobel memorial prize in economics in 2017.More than 30 years on, he has returned to that book, publishing a new, updated version with co-author Alex Imas, which looks at whether those anomalies in rational thinking have stood the test of time. Tim asks him to set out two of his most famous ideas – the winner’s curse itself, and the idea of “mental accounting”.Presenter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Donald MacDonald
Editor: Richard Vadon

Richard Thaler and The Winner’s Curse

For months, the share prices of tech companies have marched seemingly-ever upward, driven by fevered excitement about the potential of Artificial Intelligence. But many are now voicing fears that this surge might turn out to be a bubble, which could burst with damaging effects.So do we have to rely on vibes? Or can we use data to tell us about the risk that AI might go pop?Nathan Gower discovers what the numbers tell us about the health of the stock market.Guests:
Katie Martin, markets columnist at the Financial Times
Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment company Panmure LiberumPresenter and Producer: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon  
Sound Engineer: Andy Mills

Is there a stock market crash coming?

Bernie Sanders says a vast amount of wealth - $50 trillion - has moved from 90% of the population to the wealthiest Americans since the 1970s. 
The figure comes from a study by Carter Price, a senior mathematician at nonprofit research institute the RAND Corporation.Tim Harford speaks to Carter to understand how he calculated his figures and what they really mean.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nicolas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon

Has there been a $50 trillion wealth transfer to the richest Americans?

The US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr is on a mission to make America healthy again.
 
One of his health-promotion ideas is to reduce chronic illness, specifically diabetes. And has part of his campaign he said that: 
 
"a typical pediatrician would see one case of diabetes in his lifetime, over a 40 or 50 year career. Today, 1 out of every 3 kids who walks through his office door is prediabetic or diabetic. Twenty years ago, there was no diabetes in China, today 50% of the population is diabetic'  
 
Diabetes does carry a huge burden of health, but are his numbers right and how much of a problem is diabetes in the US and around the globe?
 
We speak to diabetes expert and co-author of the Diabetes Atlas, Professor Dianna Magliano to find out more. 
 
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Studio Manager: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is RFK Jr right about China's diabetes rate?

Vlad III Dracula, the Wallachian Prince who became Bram Stokers inspiration behind his famous vampire 'Count Dracula,' was a brutal ruler. So brutal that history dubbed him 'Vlad the Impaler' due to his penchant for that particularly gruesome form of execution. Which, without going into too much detail, involved driving a large stake or pole through someone's body - often vertically. Chroniclers and historians claim that he impaled over 20,000 people during his reigns which, if true is a very, very big number. But is it true? We speak to Historian Dénes Harai whose paper: 'Counting the Stakes: A Reassessment of Vlad III Dracula’s Practice of Collective Impalements in Fifteenth-Century South-eastern Europe' attempts to set the record straight. Let's travel back to 1431 to separate the math's from the myth. Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill 
Series Producer: Tom Colls 
Sound Mix: Neil Churchill 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Halloween special: How many people did the real Dracula impale?

Do you ever have fights with your partner about who does more of the housework and whether it’s fair? Well data might have the answer.  Corinne Low is an associate professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She analyses surveys of how people spend their time, particularly in terms of “home production” - that is things like cooking and cleaning, and “market work”, that is, paid work. If you’re the male half of a heterosexual couple, then she’s got some stats you should hear.Tim sat down to talk it all over while Corinne was in the UK to promote her new book on the subject - titled Femonomics in the UK, and Having It All in the US.Presenter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Janet Staples
Sound mix: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is your housework split sexist?

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been awarded this year’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.The three are sharing 11 million Swedish kronor, over a million dollars, after being recognised for their work in the area of “innovation-driven economic growth”. But why does this area matter and what did the three economists actually do? 
We turn the tables on our presenter Tim Harford, to explain all.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Reporter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Donald MacDonald
Editor: Richard VadonImage credit: Johan Jarnestad / The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Nobel economics prize 2025: What's the big idea?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Conservative party conference has been told that millions of people are getting free cars from the government because they have ADHD and anxiety. Is that right?The chair of the Labour party says that only 3% of farmers will be affected by proposed changes to inheritance tax. Is that true? The charity Movember claim that two in five men die too young. What does that really mean?  And Tim’s mid-life crisis has manifested itself in a marathon run. We ask a scientist if data can help him finish faster. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele 
Sound mix: Gareth Jones 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are millions of people getting Motability cars for anxiety and ADHD?

In a recent speech to the UN, US president Donald Trump set out some remarkable figures on the proportion of inmates in European prisons who were foreign nationals.Citing statistics from the Council of Europe, he references Greece, Germany and Austria, as having rates around 50%.“In Switzerland, beautiful Switzerland,” he said “72% of the people in prisons are from outside of Switzerland.”
These numbers are correct, but why are the percentages so high – particularly in Switzerland?Tim Harford speaks to Professor Marcelo Aebi, a criminologist from the University of Lausanne, who wrote the prisons report for the Council of Europe.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are 72% of prison inmates in Switzerland foreign?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Daily Mail says that over half of the UK population live in households that get more in benefits than they pay in tax - is it true?Do some billionaires earn more in a night than the population of Bournemouth earns in a year? New Green leader Zack Polanski seems to think so - we scrutinise the figures.Are older generations getting smarter? Have 77% of Gen-Z brought a parent along to a job interview? Really?If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nathan Gower 
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Duncan Hannant
Editor: Richard Vadon

Does half the UK get more in benefits than they pay in tax?

When you follow the news, particularly in countries like the UK and the US, it sometimes feels like people are less optimistic about their lives than they were in the past.
But a new piece of analysis from polling company Gallup suggests this might just be the local view, not the global one.
Using data from the Gallup World Poll, it suggests that “people in more countries are living better lives and expressing more hope for the future” than at any point in the last decade.Tim Harford speaks to Gallup’s Benedict Vigers, who wrote the report, to understand what improvements in the “global median for thriving” really means.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Bob Nettles
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the world getting less miserable?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:US President Donald Trump claims he has ended seven “unendable” wars. Is that true?Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the first six months of 2025. What do you need to know about that stat?The Daily Mail has described a recent scientific paper as describing a global cancer “explosion”. Is that the whole story?And why have Oxford and Cambridge dropped down a university league table?If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Has Donald Trump ended seven 'unendable' wars?

In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites. Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for agencies such as the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Census Bureau. In many cases the entire website went dark. Within a few days some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 datasets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated - but some have not.  
We speak to Professors Maggie Levenstein and John Kubale to find out why this data was taken away, and why any of it matters. If you spot any numbers or statistical claims that you think we should check out contact: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound engineer: Neil Churchill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge 
Editor: Richard Vadon

The case of the missing US data

In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites. Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for agencies such as the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Census Bureau. In many cases the entire website went dark. 
Within a few days some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 datasets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated - but some have not.  
We speak to Professors Maggie Levenstein and John Kubale to find out why this data was taken away, and why any of it matters. If you spot any numbers or statistical claims that you think we should check out contact: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Co-Ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge 
Audio Mix: Neil Churchill

The Case of the Missing US Data

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey says it was easier to deport illegal migrants to Europe when we were in the EU. Is that true?Did the governor of the Bank of England get his numbers wrong on the UK’s ageing population? Why is the price of beef up by 25% in a year?Is it possible to prove that MPs are using AI to write their speeches? If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford 
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill 
Producers: Nathan Gower and Nicholas Barrett 
Series producer: Tom Colls 
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele 
Sound mix: Gareth Jones 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Was it easier to deport migrants to France before Brexit?

On September the 10th 2025, right-wing political activist and media personality Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at an event in Utah. In the aftermath, his friend JD Vance, the US Vice President, hosted a special memorial edition of ‘The Charlie Kirk Show’, live from the White House, during which he called for unity, but said that could only be found by “climbing the mountain of truth”. “While our side of the aisle certainly has its crazies, it is a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left,” he said. We investigate the statistical evidence around political violence – both in people’s attitudes and the crimes themselves. Presenter: Tim Harford 
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill 
Series producer: Tom Colls 
Sound mix: Hal Haines 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: Nigel Farage says 6.5 million people are on out-of-work benefits – with some benefits up 80% since 2018. Are those numbers right? Do French pensioners really earn more than their working-age compatriots?How is it possible for one kilogram of fish food to produce one kilogram of salmon? And do we really have five senses? If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is it true that out-of-work benefits have almost doubled?

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the world faces a severe labour shortage – 50 million workers by the end of the decade.
The boss of the world’s most valuable company thinks humanoid robots will be needed to fill the gap.But is this prediction based on solid evidence?Tim Harford looks at the calculations behind the claim with Rajiv Gupta, a technology expert at Boston Consulting Group, who is the likely source of the 50 million figure.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Hal Haines
Editor: Richard Vadon

Will the world really be 50 million workers short by 2030?

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news. This week: Is it true that interest payments on the UK’s national debt are equivalent to £240 per month for everyone in the country?Reform UK claim that Afghan migrants are 22 times more likely to be convicted of sex offences. Is that number correct? We try to make sense of a claim that one in 10 women are being driven to leave work by their menopause symptoms. And we investigate a claim comparing the speed of a snail and the war in Ukraine. If you’ve seen a number you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are Afghan nationals more likely to be convicted of sexual offences?

Hollywood has given sharks a terrible reputation. But in reality, the finned fish should be far more scared of us, than we of them.Millions of sharks are killed in fishing nets and lines every year.One statistical claim seems to sum up the scale of this slaughter – that 100 million sharks are killed every year, or roughly 11,000 per hour.But how was this figure calculated, and what exactly does it mean?We go straight to the source and speak to the researcher who worked it out, Dr Boris Worm, a professor in marine conservation at Dalhousie University in Canada.Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Annie Gardiner
Editor: Richard Vadon

Do 11,000 sharks die every hour?

Fully autonomous cars are here. In a handful of cities across the US and China, robotaxis are transporting human passengers around town, but with no human behind the wheel.Loyal Listener Amberish wrote in to More or Less to ask about a couple of safety statistics he’d seen regarding these self-driving cars on social media. These claimed that Waymo self-driving taxis were five times safer than human drivers in the US, and that Tesla’s self-driving cars are 10 times safer. But, are these claims true? We speak to Mark MacCarthy, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution Center for Technology Innovation, to find out.If you’ve seen some numbers you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are self-driving cars safer than cars with drivers?

Are office temperatures set too low in the summer for women to be comfortable? This idea has featured in news headlines and comedy videos which describe the summer as a “women’s winter”.But is there evidence behind the claims of a gender bias in air conditioning? To find out, we speak to Gail Brager, Director of the Center for Environmental Design Research at UC Berkeley, and Boris Kingma, a senior researcher at TNO, the Netherlands Applied Research Institute.Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Do women feel the cold more than men?

In early July, the Mediterranean Sea experienced a marine heatwave. The surface of the water reached temperatures of 30 degrees in some places. 
A social media post at the time claimed that some of these sea temperatures were so different to the normal sea temperature at this time of year, that the sea was experiencing a “1 in 216,000,000,000-year sea temperature anomaly”. This would suggest that the likelihood of the event was on a timescale far longer than the amount of time the entire universe has existed. 
Is the claim true? Dr Jules Kajtar, a physical oceanographer from the National Oceanography Centre, takes a look at the statistics. We heard about this story because a listener spotted it and emailed the team. Get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think we should look at. moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge 
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

How weird was the Mediterranean Sea heatwave?

In early July, the Mediterranean Sea experienced a marine heatwave. The surface of the water reached temperatures of 30 degrees in some places. 
A social media post at the time claimed that some of these sea temperatures were so different to the normal sea temperature at this time of year, that the sea was experiencing a “1-in-216,000,000,000-year sea temperature anomaly”. 
This would suggest that the likelihood of the event was on a timescale far longer than the amount of time the entire universe has existed. 
Is the claim true? Dr Jules Kajtar, a physical oceanographer from the National Oceanography Centre, takes a look at the statistics. 
We heard about this story because a listener spotted it and emailed the team. Get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think we should look at. moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge 
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

How weird was the Med Sea heatwave?

On Friday 1st August the US Bureau of Labor Statistics put out their job report data for August. It included revisions to their estimates for the jobs created in May and June which stated there were 258,000 fewer jobs than they had previously estimated.
This news was not received well by the White House. President Trump fired the head of the bureau, Erika McEntarfer, calling the numbers ‘phony, rigged, a scam’ and spreading conspiracy theories that McEntarfer had fudged the data. 
We speak to economist Michael Strain from the American Enterprise Institute, to understand why the revisions happened and the potential consequences of throwing doubt on one of the US’s most important statistical agencies.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Lizzy McNeill 
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Sam Bonham

Why it matters that Trump fired data chief

In June 2022 the United States Supreme Court passed what became known as ‘the Dobbs decision’. In doing so they overturned the long standing constitutional right for women to access abortion in the US. 
 
Since then a number of states have banned abortion completely with many others having highly prohibitive rules. You’d expect the numbers of abortions to go down. They haven’t. 
 
How is it possible that more people are accessing abortions in a post Dobbs society and why is it not true that states which have total bans have zero abortions per year?
 
 
Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge
Studio Manager: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon, Bridget Harney.

Are abortion numbers rising in the US?

We’re living through boom-times for Artificial Intelligence, with more and more of us using AI assistants like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Grok and Copilot to do basic research and writing tasks. But what is the environmental impact of these technologies? Many listeners have got in touch with More or Less to ask us to investigate various claims about the energy and water use of AI.One claim in particular has caught your attention - the idea that the equivalent of a small bottle of drinking water is consumed by computer processors every time you ask an AI a question, or get it to write a simple email. So, where does that claim come from, and is it true?Reporter: Paul Connolly
Producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Donald McDonald
Editor: Richard Vadon

Does a single AI query use a bottle of water?

This year, the UK has had its hottest May and June days on record, with the mercury hitting the high thirties.But while the markings on a thermometer seem scientific and regular, the way we split up our calendar does not. Why, for instance, does May have 31 days and June have 30?To find out why our calendar has its modern form, we speak to Kristen Lippincott, former director of the Royal Observatory at Greenwich, and author of The Story of Time. If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon

The messy history behind the modern calendar

In the midst of the television coverage of Soccer Aid, a celebrity soccer match organised by Unicef, the audience was told that “one in six children around the world are currently living through war”. Listener Isla got in touch with More or Less to ask whether the claim was correct, so we tracked down the source to an organisation called the Peace Research Institute Oslo.Research director Siri Aas Rustad tells us how they worked out a figure for the number of children living near to a “conflict” and the big differences between that and something most people would think of as “war”.If you’ve seen a number you think we should look at, email the team on moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Giles Aspen 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are one in six children living through war?

Manchester United are terrible, even according to their own manager. Last season saw their worst ever performance in Premier League history.But at the same time, according to Forbes magazine, they’re still the second most valuable football club in the world. How is that possible?Tim talks to Kieran Maguire, a football finance expert and the author of The Price of Football, to find out the secret of Manchester United’s financial success. Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Why Manchester United can afford to play badly

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news and in life. This week: Is the secret to halving obesity rates really just a matter of cutting back on one fizzy drink a day? How many new babies in the City of London have a foreign-born parent? And since fewer than one baby a week is actually born in the City of London, how much should we care?Electricity in the UK is more expensive than almost anywhere else. Why? And is it anything to do with wind turbines? And we help out rival Radio 4 programme Start the Week with a claim about churches.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett and Nathan Gower
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Editor: Richard Vadon