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Naval

Naval with three founders who are living in the future: Garry Tan (Y Combinator), Daniel Francis (Abel Police), and Farbood Nivi (A-LIST).  00:00 Guest Intros 02:35 Live in the Future 03:58 Will AI Outsmart us? 07:43 In the Anthropic Breadline 09:59 The Tech Genie Is Out 12:33 We Invested in COVID?! 14:25 Good Writing Is Novelty 18:50 Living Like It's 2028 24:32 Truth dot ai 30:18 Does China have the Weights? 35:38 Everyone has AI Anxiety 39:32 Have Your Agent Talk to My Agent 42:01 What if Open Source takes the Lead? 44:03 The Sun is Setting on Google 48:00 Ride the AGI 50:46 Will There be Startups? 54:05 Defending Taiwan 1:00:05 The California Empire 1:01:26 If the U.S. Falls 1:03:11 Universal Basic Robot 1:06:01 Humans as AI Handlers

Live in the Future

Full episode with 20 minutes of new material at the end.   Software factories, vertical integration, the regulatory frontier, and the autonomous company.   Part 1: Waste Tokens, Save Time 00:00 Three Frontier Founders 01:27 AI Software Factories 04:15 Waste Tokens, Save Time 05:47 Models Instructing Humans 09:29 Is Pure Software Dead? 12:03 You Don't Get Stuck Anymore   Part 2: Vibe Coding Hardware 14:39 Vibe Coding a Turbine Blade 18:07 Open Source Compounds China's Advantage 20:15 You Always Want the Smartest Model 22:44 Software Still Needs Hands 24:43 Humans Are Becoming Verifiers   Part 3: The Regulatory Frontier 27:53 The Regulatory Red Queen Race 32:32 Why There's No Innovation in Healthcare 36:49 We Need a True 50-State Experiment 40:31 China's FDA Is Beating Ours 43:37 Healthcare Is a Communist Society Inside Capitalism 45:57 Sid's Story: N-of-1 Medicine   Part 4: The Autonomous Company 47:49 Autonomous Infrastructure 51:25 Your Job Is to Train the Agent 54:54 The Next Lord of the Rings 59:08 What's Your Definition of Art? 1:05:00 Can AI Have New Ideas? 1:07:03 A Very Large Number of Small Teams   With Guillermo Rauch (Vercel), Blake Scholl (Boom Supersonic), and Max Hodak (Science).   Transcript: http://nav.al/industrial

Full Episode: The AI Industrial Revolution

00:00 Be Credible 03:18 "Yes, And" 04:31 Selfish Honesty 05:37 Charisma Is Confidence + Love 07:56 Don't Manage, Lead 11:16 Hunt Together 14:51 Feed Your (Good) Obsessions 18:57 Sell the Truth 21:07 Good Deal or No Deal 23:39 The Age of Nonlinear Returns — Transcript: http://nav.al/sell USVC is a product of AngelList, where we are founders and hold equity.  

Sell the Truth

00:00 The Fully Interconnected Startup 04:14 You Don't Need the Explicit Intranet Anymore 06:55 May You Live in Interesting Times 10:40 Drones Democratize Violence 12:43 Biothreats Could Also Get Democratized 15:09 AI Interfaces Unlock Hardware 17:35 Optimism Requires Creativity  -- Transcript: http://nav.al/over USVC is a product of AngelList, where we are founders and hold equity.

'Nothing Ever Happens' Is Over

 A Return to Coding 00:15 The Personal App Store 03:08 Vibe Coding Is a Video Game with Real-World Rewards 06:12 Pure Software Is Uninvestable 10:23 A Place for Each Model 14:09 AI Is Eager to Please 17:44 Why Math and Coding? 21:58 The Beginning of the End of Apple's Dominance 24:04 Coding Agents As Customer Service Reps 27:43  -- Transcript: http://nav.al/code Presented by AngelList: http://angellist.com/podcast We founded AngelList and have equity in the company.

A Return to Code

If you want to learn, do 0:00 Vibe coding is the new product management 2:13 Training models is the new coding 6:49 Is traditional software engineering dead? 10:13 There is no demand for average 13:07 The hottest new programming language is English 14:12 AI is adapting to us faster than we are adapting to it 18:36 No entrepreneur is worried about AI taking their job 22:56 The goal is not to have a job 26:46 AIs are not alive 29:49 AI fails the only true test of intelligence 32:55 Early adopters of AI have an enormous edge 36:49 AI meets you exactly where you are 39:37 Always leverage the best intelligence 43:02 If you can't define it, you can't program it 44:37 The solution to AI anxiety is action 49:37 -- Transcript: http://nav.al/ai

A Motorcycle for the Mind

The Best Only Want to Work With the Best 0:00 You'll Never Be Able to Hire Anybody Better Than You 3:49 Break Every Rule to Get the Best People 6:45 It Just Takes a Small Group of People to Create Something Great 10:19 Find Undiscovered Talent Before Everyone Else 14:56 Great People Have Taste in Other People 19:04 Every Great Engineer Is Also an Artist 21:24 Early Teams Look Like Cults 25:34 You Can't Make a Product that is Simple Enough 27:59 The Founder's Personality Is the Company 30:37 Good Teams Throw Away Far More Product Than They Keep 34:45 All New Information Starts as Misinformation 38:41 Geniuses Only 40:47 Practice Your Craft At the Edge of Your Capability 44:24 Curate People 49:14 — Transcript: http://nav.al/curate-people

Curate People

Inspiration All the Way Down 0:00 Life is Lived in the Arena 2:40 If You Want to Learn, Do 4:51 In Most Difficult Things in Life, The Solution is Indirect 6:15 When You Truly Work for Yourself 7:30 Find Your Specific Knowledge Through Action 10:12 You Have to Enjoy It a Lot 12:06 Pause, Reflect, See How Well it Did 14:45 Blame Yourself for Everything, and Preserve Your Agency 16:23 It Is Impossible to Fool Mother Nature 21:03 The Best Authors Respect the Reader's Time 25:17 Most Books Should Be Skimmed, A Few Should Be Devoured 28:18 Good Products Are Hard to Vary 32:01 Find the Simplest Thing That Works 35:27 — Transcript http://nav.al/in-the-arena

In the Arena

Find the Simplest Thing That Works

Good Products Are Hard to Vary

Most Books Should Be Skimmed, A Few Should Be Devoured

The Best Authors Respect the Reader's Time

It Is Impossible to Fool Mother Nature

Blame Yourself for Everything, and Preserve Your Agency

Pause, Reflect, See How Well it Did

Hiring a Podcast Editor and Naval's Chief of Staff

You Have to Enjoy It a Lot

Find Your Specific Knowledge Through Action

When You Truly Work for Yourself

In Most Difficult Things in Life, The Solution is Indirect

If You Want to Learn, Do

Life is Lived in the Arena

Inspiration all the way down

 Connecting the Four Theories into a Unified Whole 0:34 Emergence Is Fundamental 3:18 Constructor Theory Could Transform Multiple Fields 8:30 Innovation Often Emerges Unexpectedly 22:46 Knowledge Evolves Independently Across Universes 29:31 Anti-Rational Memes Hinder Human Progress 31:10 The West Versus the Rest 37:32 Error-correcting Institutions 47:46 The Bucket Theory of the Mind 51:59 Wokeism and the West 1:07:12 —   Transcript http://nav.al/deutsch-files-iv 

The Deutsch Files IV

Proving something about AGI is inherently impossible 0:00 Creativity is not just mixing things together 3:05 The superiority of explanatory knowledge 7:48 Knowledge laden information is more resilient than any physical object 12:36 The problems of cloning people 15:05 Objections to Taking Children Seriously 19:23 "Do what you like" is bad advice 38:17 Creativity versus nature 41:57 Deutsch's "fanciful" conjectures 47:52 We must give up on the idea of an ultimate explanation 53:06 — Transcript http://nav.al/deutsch-files-iii  

The Deutsch Files III

The universality of computation and explanation 0:00 The growth of knowledge begins with problems 4:56 Problems are clashes between ideas 9:57 Evolution is not the survival of the fittest 14:50 Bad philosophy in quantum theory 26:46 Free will is intimately connected with knowledge-creation 33:41 Wealth is not a number, it is a set of transformations 49:03 The principle of optimism 53:27 Constructor Theory 57:21 How to make a better world 1:10:05 — Transcript http://nav.al/deutsch-files-ii  

The Deutsch Files II

Good Science Fiction is Hard to Vary 2:08 ChatGPT is Not a Step Towards AGI 5:36 Creativity is Fundamentally Impossible to Define 13:35 The Binary of Personhood and Non-Personhood 23:41 David Deutsch's Life Philosophy 32:06 The Clash of Civilizations 44:03 — Transcript http://nav.al/deutsch-files-i Discuss on Airchat http://getairchat.com/arjun/deutschfilesdiscussion

The Deutsch Files I

Popper's Impact 0:00 Creative Guesses 2:18 Experiments, Demonstrations, and Measurements 4:25 Taking Theories Seriously 10:25 New Paradigms 15:58 Foundations of Science 23:30 The Enlightenment 25:39 Misinformation 29:45 — Transcript http://nav.al/david-deutsch-2

David Deutsch: Knowledge Creation and The Human Race, Part 2

Introduction 0:00 The Human Race 2:11 Knowledge Creation 12:34 AGI 15:50 Taking Children Seriously 23:30 Good Explanations 27:49 Quantum Computers 36:35 — Transcript http://nav.al/david-deutsch

David Deutsch: Knowledge Creation and The Human Race, Part 1

The elder statesman of smart contract blockchains 0:00 The Ethereum community 1:22 The DAO hack 2:34 Vitalik's finest and worst moments in protocol politics 5:18 Becoming a Twitter memelord 7:45 Vitalik's influence on Eth today 8:59 It's getting harder to do big things in Eth 10:38 Goals outside Ethereum 12:17 Crypto needs the good-natured 15:00 Russia 18:06 Vitalik's lifestyle 19:51 Closing thoughts 22:06 — Transcript http://nav.al/vitalik-2

Vitalik: Ethereum, Part 2

Introduction 0:00 Haseeb's background 0:22 Vitalik's background 2:43 A blockchain you can build any app on top of 7:02 Eth trades efficiency for transparency 10:18 Like plain text, Eth is simple and efficient 12:41 Only high-value transactions can afford the blockchain 13:08 Doing away with 'trusted' third parties 14:09 Trading performance for security 14:43 'Impregnable castles made of math' 16:23 Ethereum's limitations are latency and privacy 16:56 There are ways to get back your privacy 19:32 Can Eth provide a high level of decentralization and a high level of scaling at the same time? 20:39 Sharding leads to more centralization 21:49 Verifiability at the expense of scaling 24:00 How much decentralization is the right amount? 25:11 What happens when subsidies to join nodes disappear? 27:07 Stateless clients make it possible to verify the chain with very little on your hard drive 28:18 Staking culture is difficult to cultivate 28:52 New blockchain players tend to go for minimum viable decentralization 29:54 People don't value privacy until somebody goes to jail over it 30:32 Eth is 'simple at the base' 31:12 Social recovery wallets make it easier to be your own bank 31:44 Block space is getting expensive 32:41 There's not a lot of innovation on Bitcoin, by design 33:35 Blockchain's 'free-rider effect' 34:57 Innovation is slowest at Layer 1 35:34 Layer 2 moves faster because it's permissionless 36:59 What if we froze Layer 1 today? 37:25 Data for computation trade-off 38:57 Benchmarking blockchains apples-to-apples 40:02 Enshrining decentralization 41:43 Tensions between scaling and preserving value 42:27 There will be multiple stores of value 43:54 — Transcript http://nav.al/vitalik

Vitalik: Ethereum, Part 1

The Beginning of Infinity, Part 2

To a Caveman Very Few Things Are Resources

Transcript http://nav.al/infinite-resources

Knowledge Makes the Existence of Resources Infinite

Groups Never Admit Failure

Making Something Social Destroys the Truth of It

Free Markets Provide the Best Feedback

The Poverty of Compromise

Transcript: http://nav.al/decentralization

Innovation Requires Decentralization and a Frontier

Don't Rely on Credibility Stamps

One Einstein Is Worth A Legion Of PhD Drones

Ideas Are the New Oil

Aliens Would Visit for Knowledge, Not Resources

Aliens Might Just Be Too Far Away

If You Can't Program It, You Don't Understand It

The Probability of Human Existence Is Infinitesimally Small

Intelligent Species Have Only Risen Once on Planet Earth

Where Are the Aliens?

It's Mind Blowing That Our Minds Can't Be Blown

More Compute Power Doesn't Produce AGI

We Are Qualitatively Different From Other Species

Humans Are Exceptional

Genetic Evolution Was a Prelude to Memetic Evolution

There Can Be No Final Theory of Gravity

No Truth Can Be Justified

With a Good Theory of Knowledge, You Can Decide What Else Is True

The Beginning of Infinity, Part 1

Rational Optimism Is the Way Out

Pessimism Seems Like an Intellectually Serious Position

It's Easy to Extrapolate How Things Will Get Worse

We're All Equal in Our Infinite Ignorance

It's Rare to Have Competing, Viable, Scientific Theories

Science Advances One Funeral at a Time

Make Bold Guesses and Weed Out Failures

Theories Are Explanations, Not Predictions

Science Is an Error-Correcting Mechanism

Science Broadens Our Vision of Reality

We Explain the Seen in Terms of the Unseen

The Multiverse

Is Light a Particle or a Wave?

Probability Is Subjective

We Can't Prove Most Theorems with Known Physics

Every Mathematical Theory Is Held Inside a Physical Substrate

Is the Universe Discrete or Continuous?

All Knowledge Is Conjectural

The Methods of Mathematics Are Fallible

There Is No Settled Mathematics

There Is No End of Science

Good Explanations Are Hard to Vary

Transcript: http://nav.al/explanations Sponsor: http://www.eightsleep.com/infinity

Good Explanations Are Acts of Creativity

Transcript: http://nav.al/understand Sponsor: http://www.eightsleep.com/infinity

Humans Are Unique in Our Ability to Understand Things

Transcript: http://nav.al/predict Sponsor: http://www.eightsleep.com/infinity

It's Impossible to Predict the Future Growth of Knowledge

Transcript: http://nav.al/people Sponsor: http://www.eightsleep.com/infinity

People Are a Force of Nature

Transcript: http://nav.al/knowledge Sponsor: http://www.eightsleep.com/infinity

We're at the Beginning of an Infinity of Knowledge

Happiness

Read the Best 100 Books Over and Over Again

We Can Have Explanations That Reach the Entire Universe

Nullius in Verba

This Book Changed the Way I Think

Science Is the Engine That Pulls Humanity Forward

Transcript: http://nav.al/matt-ridley-2    

Matt Ridley: How Innovation Works, Part 2

Transcript: http://nav.al/matt-ridley    

Matt Ridley: How Innovation Works, Part 1

Excerpted from the Spearhead podcast: http://spearhead.co

How to Angel Invest, Part 2

Discovering the truth can change you where self-improvement fails.   Transcript: http://nav.al/truth

The Path to Peace Is Truth

Even smart people go along with society's lies.   Transcript: http://nav.al/consensus

Groups Search for Consensus, Individuals Search for Truth

Wise people are quiet Transcript: http://nav.al/silent    

The Closer You Are to the Truth, the More Silent You Become Inside

Transcript: http://nav.al/peace-motion    

Happiness Is Peace in Motion

The mind should be a servant, not a master. Transcript: http://nav.al/peace    

Finding Peace from Mind

Addiction holds together artificial relationships and fake activities. Transcript: http://nav.al/unacceptable

Breaking Addiction is Socially Unacceptable

Pursuing pleasure for its own sake creates addiction. Transcript: http://nav.al/addiction    