FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

By FiveThirtyEight, 538, ESPN, Nate Silver

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.


Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live!

FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.
12/08/2032m 58s

Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden's VP Pick

The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.
11/08/2030m 3s

The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes

Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare Biden's current standing in the polls to Clinton's standing at this time in 2016 -- her peak of the overall campaign.
10/08/2048m 13s

It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid

After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
03/08/2051m 34s

A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump

Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.
30/07/2027m 6s

Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away

According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.
27/07/201h 8m

The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election

In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?
23/07/2039m 6s

There Aren't Secret Trump Voters

A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.
20/07/2056m 24s

White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality

In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.
16/07/2049m 16s

COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?

The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."
13/07/2054m 29s

Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term

FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.
09/07/2032m 37s

How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds

The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.
06/07/2056m 25s

How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party

FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."
02/07/2041m 5s

Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.
29/06/2045m 41s

New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19

FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic
25/06/2032m 59s

Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment

The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.
22/06/2048m 17s

Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally

In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.
18/06/2041m 1s

Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?

The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.
15/06/2053m 9s

The Protests Appear To Be Working

New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.
12/06/2025m 47s

Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises

The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.
08/06/2055m 9s

Protests, Then And Now

Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.
04/06/2045m 7s

The Data Behind Police Violence

Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.
01/06/2059m 36s

What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him

Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.
28/05/2034m 43s

Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases

The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.
26/05/201h 1m

One Virus, A World Full Of Responses

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.
21/05/2044m 3s

Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?

The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.
18/05/2053m 10s

Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading

Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done about them.
14/05/2045m 1s

Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen

The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.
11/05/2048m 14s

What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means

Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.
08/05/2032m 26s

Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation

The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.
04/05/201h 0m

The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?

States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.
30/04/2036m 24s

Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?

The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.
27/04/2055m 32s

Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19

Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.
22/04/2042m 21s

What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?

The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.
20/04/201h 2m

How To Hold An Election During A Crisis

What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?
16/04/2051m 38s

Our 2020 Election Priors

Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.
13/04/2052m 36s

Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out

The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.
08/04/2030m 56s

Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess

The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.
06/04/2053m 9s

Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19

FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.
02/04/2033m 42s

Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased

The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.
30/03/2050m 54s

COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart

Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.
26/03/2034m 9s

How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics

The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.
23/03/2051m 51s

How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy

Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
20/03/2040m 46s

How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote

FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.
18/03/2030m 8s

Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics

The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.
16/03/2049m 21s

Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic

The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.
16/03/2018m 40s

The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive

The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.
11/03/2031m 56s

Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?

The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.
09/03/2045m 27s

Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out

The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.
05/03/2023m 12s

Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?

The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.
04/03/2032m 20s

What's At Stake On Super Tuesday

The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.
02/03/2055m 28s

Biden Wins Big In South Carolina

The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.
01/03/2026m 48s

How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden

Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.
26/02/2033m 49s

What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate

The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.
26/02/2040m 11s

Sanders Wins Big In Nevada

Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.
23/02/2036m 45s

Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate

In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.
20/02/2036m 1s

Can Bloomberg Win?!

The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.
18/02/2052m 45s

Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.
14/02/2026m 3s

Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire

The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.
12/02/2031m 3s

Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview

At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!
10/02/201h 9m

Live From The New Hampshire Debate

The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.
08/02/2027m 54s

The Results In Iowa

The crew discusses the results -- so far -- from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.
06/02/2047m 14s

Chaos In Iowa

The crew discusses the lack of results in the Democratic Iowa caucuses.
04/02/2024m 58s

Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.
02/02/2038m 52s

Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040

As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.
31/01/2034m 8s

When Women Run

To better understand what it's really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it -- 97 women in all. These are their stories.
29/01/2058m 38s

The Sanders Surge

The crew assesses Bernie Sanders's improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton's new book.
27/01/2059m 6s

The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right?

This is the third installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
23/01/2032m 35s

How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics

FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump's impeachment trial.
22/01/2027m 22s

Live From DC: America's Favorite Sandwich

In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.
20/01/201h 13m

The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform

This is the second installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
16/01/2045m 18s

The Last Pre-Iowa Debate

The crew reacts to the candidates' performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.
15/01/2032m 7s

A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa

The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker's decision to dropout and Tom Steyer's polling in NV and SC.
13/01/2042m 25s

Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live

FiveThirtyEight's 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of "Model Talk" Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.
10/01/2038m 44s

The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything

This is the first installment of our audio documentary series "The Primaries Project," looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.
09/01/2033m 43s

How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020

The team discusses the political implication's of President Trump's decision to kill Iran's Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.
06/01/2047m 17s

The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019

The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.
30/12/1949m 54s

Eggnog And Listener Questions

In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.
23/12/1947m 14s

The House Impeaches President Trump

President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.
19/12/1929m 36s

Do Voters' Second Choices Matter?

The crew previews what to expect from this week's likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters' second choices matter in the Democratic primary.
16/12/1948m 56s

Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election

University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.
13/12/1945m 30s

The Primary According To The Early States

The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight's polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump's presidency is on.
09/12/1953m 0s

The Legal Experts And The Polls

We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.
04/12/1942m 20s

Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out

The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris's decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.
03/12/1940m 24s

Is The Party Deciding?

The crew looks at which candidates are racking up endorsements and whether there's a meaningful trend in favor of Biden. They also take stock of Harris's troubles on the trail
02/12/1954m 38s

A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving

The crew discusses public opinion on impeachment and plays a Thanksgiving-inspired game.
25/11/1959m 43s

What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate

In a late night podcast, the crew reacts to the fifth Democratic primary debate.
21/11/1926m 34s

Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies

The crew reacts to U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland's testimony in the fourth day of public impeachment hearings.
20/11/1930m 10s

Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call

The crew discusses what went down during the third day of public impeachment hearings.
20/11/1924m 24s

The Buttigieg Bump 2.0

The crew discusses the latest polling out of Iowa, showing a shakeup in the race there. They also ask why education levels are such a key factor in how people vote.
18/11/1952m 27s

Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks

The crew reacts to the second day of public impeachment hearings.
15/11/1929m 35s

Public Impeachment Hearings Begin

The crew reacts to the first of many public impeachment hearings on President Trump's attempt to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival.
13/11/1937m 48s

The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast

The New York Times's Nate Cohn joins the podcast to discuss battleground state polling, the Electoral College and the state of the Democratic primary.
11/11/191h 4m

What The 2019 Election Results Mean

FiveThirtyEight election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down the results of the 2019 elections.
06/11/1938m 51s

Free-For-All In Iowa

The crew previews the key elections on the ballot this Election Day and debates the role healthcare is playing in Sen. Elizabeth Warren's plateauing in national polls.
04/11/1951m 16s

Exit Interview: Tim Ryan

Rep. Tim Ryan exited the presidential race last week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
31/10/1936m 34s

What Should Republicans Do?

The crew debates the savviest political strategy for Senate Republicans on the issue of impeachment. They also discuss the death of al-Baghdadi and disagreement in the polls.
28/10/191h 1m

The Taylor Testimony

The crew discusses the significance of U.S. envoy to Ukraine William Taylor's testimony. He claimed Trump made military aid contingent on politically-motivated investigations.
23/10/1923m 49s

Medicare For Fall

The podcast crew discusses the politics of Medicare for All in the Democratic primary. They also look at the latest impeachment polling.
21/10/1952m 21s

Warren In The Hot Seat

The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.
16/10/1938m 24s

What To Look For In The 4th Debate

The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.
14/10/1957m 17s

Impeachment 101

Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.
10/10/1942m 6s

Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?

The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties' strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.
07/10/1959m 34s

How TV's Evolution Explains Our Politics

New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.
03/10/1936m 36s

Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular

The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.
30/09/1950m 22s

The Whistleblower's Complaint

It's only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump's Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower's complaint and more.
26/09/1936m 3s

What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean

The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi's decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How'd we get here, and what might come next?
24/09/1924m 32s

Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?

The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.
23/09/1948m 55s

We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport

Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he'd record a podcast and he obliged.
19/09/1926m 14s

The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries

The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump's electoral strengths and weaknesses.
16/09/1954m 43s

What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate

The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.
13/09/1935m 4s

How To Own The Debate

The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.
09/09/1956m 27s

The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States

A North Carolina court panel threw out the state's legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.
05/09/1926m 46s

And Then There Were Ten

The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?
03/09/1944m 13s

A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?

Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.
29/08/1945m 33s

The Winnowing Begins

The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.
26/08/1948m 37s

The 2019 Elections

FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.
22/08/1930m 0s

Elizabeth Warren's Comeback

The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what's changed since the El Paso shooting.
19/08/1955m 27s

Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk

International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump's trade war with China.
15/08/1937m 31s

How Much Does Iowa Matter?

Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
12/08/1958m 4s

"The Best Pollster In Politics"

Ann Selzer, who conducts the "Iowa Poll" and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.
08/08/1934m 14s

Can Trump's Words Incite Violence?

The podcast team discusses the weekend's mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.
05/08/1953m 14s

Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates

The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.
02/08/191h 11m

Democrats Battle It Out

The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.
31/07/1934m 17s

Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?

The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats' next steps on impeachment.
29/07/1954m 2s

Mueller Talks

After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.
24/07/1936m 43s

Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy

The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.
22/07/1958m 57s

Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?

The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state's political trends and what they mean for 2020.
18/07/1938m 33s

Trump's Racist Tweets

The podcast team discusses Trump's tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.
15/07/1954m 23s

Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell

Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an "exit interview."
11/07/1935m 23s

Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?

The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash's decision to leave the GOP.
08/07/1947m 52s

The Verdict On The Debates

The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.
01/07/191h 2m

Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters.

The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.
28/06/1937m 26s

What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate

The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.
27/06/1935m 42s

Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary

The crew re-assesses the significance of "lanes" in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump's Iran strategy.
24/06/1951m 17s

What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions

Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.
21/06/1938m 17s

Who Is Persuadable In 2020?

As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.
17/06/1953m 16s

A Republican Strategist's Guide To 2020

Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, "What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election."
13/06/1944m 44s

Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?

The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren's breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.
10/06/1951m 43s

The D.C. Statehood Episode

Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats' efforts to make D.C. the nation's 51st state.
06/06/1939m 14s

Are Voters Sexist?

The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.
03/06/1953m 15s

Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?

University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.
31/05/1933m 36s

Is Pelosi's Trump Strategy Working?

The crew discusses whether last week's back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.
28/05/1940m 48s

What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump's Falsehoods

The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.
23/05/1930m 18s

Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?

The politics team examines Bill de Blasio's theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.
20/05/1959m 13s

Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It's part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.
16/05/1927m 33s

The Politics Of Impeaching Trump

The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.
13/05/1945m 41s

Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?

In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.
09/05/191h 13m

Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?

The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.
07/05/1955m 58s

Mueller's Letter To Barr

Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he'd characterized the report's findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.
01/05/1928m 9s

Peto Buttichar 2020

The crew discusses the Democratic Party's reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don't have more crossover support.
29/04/1948m 15s

How Joe Biden Could Win

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.
25/04/1933m 13s

We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?

The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.
22/04/1950m 34s

Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report

The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.
18/04/1944m 58s

The State Of The Democratic Primary

As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.
15/04/1947m 38s

How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?

Our "Model Talk" series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight's forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!
11/04/1930m 44s

Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?

The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.
08/04/1954m 47s

The Electoral College Episode

Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.
04/04/1941m 20s

What Will Biden Do?

Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?
01/04/1943m 54s

Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?

Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.
28/03/1957m 39s

Life After The Mueller Report

The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.
25/03/1950m 4s

Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report

In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.
22/03/1912m 57s

Live From NY: It's A 2020 Draft!

In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play "Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?"
21/03/191h 4m

Ranking 2020 Rollouts

The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.
18/03/1942m 51s

The Moment Of Truth For Brexit

David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British "Talking Politics" podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.
15/03/1937m 57s

How Beto O'Rourke Could Win

Former El Paso congressman Beto O'Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win -- or lose -- the Democratic primary.
14/03/1934m 22s

How Divided Are Democrats?

The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.
11/03/1951m 4s

Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell

Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?
07/03/1930m 47s

Should We Cancel The Electoral College?

The podcast crew discusses the latest candidate announcements, whether party endorsements matter, and the merits of the Electoral College.
04/03/1949m 55s

What We Learned From Cohen's Testimony

The podcast team reacts to a day of testimony from President Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen.
28/02/1930m 11s

Our Best (Or Worst) Show

The podcast crew discusses absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina and the threat of a primary challenge to Trump. They also play a round of "Guess What Americans Think."
25/02/1945m 38s

All The President's Investigations

The word is that Mueller will wrap up his investigation next week. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux shares an overview of the legal troubles that will continue to follow the president.
22/02/1928m 51s

How Bernie Sanders Could Win

Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for president. The team describes both his path to success and failure in the primary. They also follow up on Trump's emergency declaration.
19/02/1947m 3s

National Emergency Podcast

The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox's Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.
14/02/1945m 30s

How Amy Klobuchar Could Win

The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.
11/02/1947m 36s

The Mess In Virginia

Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state -- the governor, lt. governor and AG.
07/02/1929m 18s

The Politics Of Taxing The Rich

Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker's path to the nomination.
04/02/1936m 44s

The Perot Effect

What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.
02/02/1940m 15s

Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?

In light of Howard Schultz's possible presidential run as a "centrist independent," the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.
31/01/1933m 55s

Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements)

The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders -- Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.
28/01/1952m 25s

What To Make Of Roger Stone's Indictment

In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone's indictment.
25/01/1914m 57s

How Kamala Harris Could Win

The crew analyzes what Harris's path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller's statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.
22/01/1953m 43s

Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity

In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.
18/01/1929m 25s

How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win

New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver's audio may be a bit unclear. He says, "It's not that logical because, number one, a lot of Democrats are concerned about senators who allegedly grope people."
16/01/1936m 59s

How Julian Castro Could Win

The crew discusses what Julian Castro's path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.
14/01/1946m 25s

Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?

Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.
10/01/1929m 32s

How Elizabeth Warren Could Win

The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning -- and losing -- the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.
07/01/1954m 49s

The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona

In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.
31/12/1838m 28s

Our 2018 Politics Awards

The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.
24/12/1856m 24s

Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)

In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's departure and the looming government shutdown.
21/12/1828m 49s

Should Democrats Play Dirty?

Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently
17/12/1850m 44s

The Brexit Episode

Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
13/12/1828m 18s

Trump's Turbulent Week

President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
10/12/1842m 1s

Something Is Fishy In North Carolina

The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush's time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
03/12/1854m 5s

Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller

In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
29/11/1821m 48s

This Is Mueller Talk!

After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
29/11/1830m 11s

Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?

The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
26/11/1852m 41s

Will Pelosi Be Replaced?

The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
19/11/1854m 40s

How Our Model Did

In this post-mortem episode of "Model Talk," Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
15/11/1842m 8s

A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live!

Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
12/11/1852m 10s

Midterms Review

The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
08/11/1834m 48s

Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out

President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
07/11/1826m 28s

Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative

Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what's next.
07/11/1830m 30s

A Guide To Election Night

We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
06/11/1821m 19s

The Final Countdown

The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump's appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
05/11/1851m 29s

How To Judge The Model's Performance

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
02/11/1836m 42s

Debating Our Own House Forecast

We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.
01/11/1822m 35s

Debating Our Own Senate Forecast

We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.
31/10/1831m 41s

The Most Important Races You Aren't Watching

There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
30/10/1836m 26s

Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?

The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
29/10/1846m 37s

The Early Vote Is Not In The Model

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
26/10/1832m 5s
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