#42: The Deadliest Trump
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Kristen reports from Alaska
Is Alaska a hard place to do research? Well, maybe a little easier than when Margie went there 20 years ago.
NYT on whether Alaska is hard to poll
FiveThirtyEight on Alaska polling
Trump & Muslims
So Trump’s polling savvy once again is making news, this time as he cites polls for his own extremist policy. But what do the data actually say? Also, Margie enters the Blue Zone.
CNN on Trump polling citation
Washington Post on Trump polling citation
Pew study of Muslims worldwide
Sun poll of UK Muslims
Quinnipiac national survey on guns
Meanwhile, Cruz Cruises
Some hypothesize Trump’s statement comes on the heels of a Monmouth poll in IA showing Cruz on top.
Monmouth IA poll
Politico on Bush & polls
CNN IA poll
National CNN poll
USNews on CNN poll
Campaign finance reform
We talked about this with Sanders pollster Ben Tulchin last week: there is a diff between opposing money in campaigns & being a single-issue campaign finance reform voter. but new Pew data shows this is a particularly bipartisan issue:
Pew & campaign finance reform
UK polling: what went wrong?
We’d love to have Antony Wells back on, or talk to others who polled in the UK. But YouGov has come out with its report, and we suggest you take a look at what they found accounted for their error in predicting a strong Conservative win.
There are some things polls shouldn’t help us do, and that’s develop likely unconstitutional policies.
But, if we’re going to look at polling among muslims, the results are not even close to being as clear-cut as Trump believes.
Meanwhile--there are some things Margie says are in fact popular--preventing terrorists from getting guns & limiting campaign spending.
All this means the GOP race is particularly roiling & volatile this week. That we can also tell from the polling.
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